For every 2 homes that sold last week, 1 listing died.
Or read the full 7-day breakdown below.
TL;DR — The 7-Day SCV Truth
- 55 homes closed in Santa Clarita Valley last 7 days. Median sold price $819,000. Median DOM 14 days.
- 28 listings failed (10 expired, 11 cancelled, 7 withdrawn). Failure-to-close ratio is roughly 1:2. Healthy SCV runs 1:3 to 1:4.
- 78 new listings hit the market. 43 went pending. 75 price changes recorded.
- Median DOM of 14 is misleading. Multiple sales showed cumulative DOM 2 to 4x higher (153, 256, 253, 145, 142). True holding period is closer to 30 to 45 days.
- Of 55 sales, 21 closed above last list price · 34 closed at or below. The bidding-war assumption is dead.
This is the seven day truth in Santa Clarita Valley real estate, pulled fresh from the Multiple Listing Service this morning. Aggregate only. No addresses. No private data. Just the patterns sellers need to read before they price a home in May.
And the pattern this week is loud.
For every two homes that closed in Santa Clarita Valley last week, one came off market without selling. That is not a healthy market. That is a market punishing wrong pricing.
The Five Numbers That Define Last Week
Before I unpack the story, here are the raw counts from the Market Watch pull. These are widget-level totals across the standard SCV cities (Valencia, Saugus, Canyon Country, Newhall, Stevenson Ranch, Castaic, Acton, Agua Dulce, Val Verde, plus general SCV).
| Metric | Last 7 Days |
|---|---|
| New Listings | 78 |
| Coming Soon | 20 |
| Pending | 43 |
| Active Under Contract | 33 |
| Back On Market | 18 |
| Closed (Sold) | 55 |
| Price Changes (combined) | 75 |
| Expired | 10 |
| Cancelled | 11 |
| Withdrawn | 7 |
| Hold | 20 |
| Failed (Exp + Canc + Wdrn) | 28 |
The number that should jump off this table at any seller is the bottom row. Twenty eight listings died across SCV in seven days. Stack that against fifty five closes and you get a failure-to-close ratio of roughly one in two. That is the canary in this market and we are going to spend most of this article unpacking why.
What Sellers Actually Got — The Sold Set
Of the 55 closed sales last week, here is what the money looked like.
Median sold price across the valley landed at $819,000. The mean came in higher at $952,000, pulled up by a single $5,600,000 outlier in Canyon Country. The full range stretched from $445,000 (a Canyon Country condo) to that $5.6M estate sale (7,815 square feet on five plus acres, 1985 build).
Median price per square foot computed across the visible sold set sits at roughly $510. New construction in Valencia tilts higher into the $475 to $520 band, while older Canyon Country and Newhall stock skews into the high $500s and low $600s on a per-foot basis. Lot, condition, and view drive most of that variance.
Median days on market came in at 14. That number, on its own, sounds healthy. It is not, and we will explain why in the next section.
On the directional list-to-sold question, 21 of 55 sales (about 38%) closed above their last list price. The remaining 34 (about 62%) closed at or below. This is not an exact original-list-price-to-sold-price ratio — the Hot Sheet display in CRMLS shows directional arrows but does not expose the original list price column alongside the close price in that template. Future episodes will switch templates to give a clean OLP-vs-SP ratio. For now, the directional read is enough to call it: most homes sold at or under last list. The bidding-war narrative is dead.
The DOM Trap — Why "14 Days" Is Lying
This is the most important section in today's report and the one most agents will not tell you about.
Median days on market is a clean number. Fourteen sounds fast. The problem is that DOM resets every time a listing is cancelled and re-entered into the system. Cumulative days on market — CDOM — is the truer measure. It carries across re-listings.
In the closed set last week, multiple sales showed CDOM 2 to 4 times higher than DOM. Specific values seen across the 55 closes included:
- → DOM 21 / CDOM 145
- → DOM 53 / CDOM 256
- → DOM 56 / CDOM 253
- → DOM 78 / CDOM 153
- → DOM 33 / CDOM 142
These are homes that came back to the market under a fresh listing — sometimes with a new agent, sometimes a new price, sometimes both — and finally cleared. If you weight the median by CDOM rather than DOM, the truer holding period in Santa Clarita Valley right now is closer to 30 to 45 days, not 14.
If you are a seller deciding when to list and how to price, that is the number you need to plan around.
What Failed — The 28-Listing Story
Twenty eight Santa Clarita Valley listings died on the vine last week. Ten expired (their listing agreement ran out the clock). Eleven were cancelled (the seller and agent ended the agreement before expiration). Seven were withdrawn (the seller pulled the home off market without ending the agreement).
In a healthy SCV market, the failure-to-close ratio runs about one in three or one in four. We are running closer to one in two. That is a meaningful signal. It tells you that a real chunk of the inventory currently on market is mispriced, overstayed, or both.
I did not page through the failure tabs at the row level for this episode, so I cannot give you a verified median failure DOM yet. Future episodes will. But the directional read — 28 failures against 55 closes — is enough to draw the conclusion: the market is not punishing every seller. It is punishing wrong pricing and wrong representation.
By City — Where the Action Is
Here is the closed-sale breakdown by city.
| City | Sold | Median Price |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 21 | $899,000 |
| Canyon Country | 11 | $833,000 |
| Castaic | 7 | $765,000 |
| Saugus | 6 | $864,500 |
| Newhall | 5 | $775,000 |
| Acton | 4 | $752,500 |
| Stevenson Ranch | 2 | $1,422,500 |
| Agua Dulce | 1 | $1,359,000 |
| Val Verde | 0 | — |
Valencia dominated the volume with 21 closes. That is more than the next two cities combined. Median price came in just under $900K. But the Valencia number hides something important, and we are about to unpack it.
Canyon Country ran second with 11 closes at a $833,000 median. The price range was the widest in the valley — from $445K entry-level condos all the way to that $5.6M outlier estate. If you are pricing a Canyon Country home, your comparable set is narrow and you have to get it right.
Castaic closed seven sales tightly clustered around the mid-to-high $700s, mostly older single-family stock from the late 1970s through early 2000s.
Saugus closed six. Median $864,500. Two of those Saugus sales showed long DOM and very high CDOM — a Skylake area sale at DOM 49 and a Parkvale sale with CDOM 153 — which means several Saugus homes that closed last week were repeat-listed inventory that had been trying to sell for months.
Newhall closed five at a $775,000 median. Mix of duplex and SFR.
Acton closed four homes at a $752,500 median. Acton is the slowest-moving submarket in the SCV right now — one of the closes ran 137 days on market, and it was not new construction.
Stevenson Ranch closed two homes at a $1,422,500 median, well above the valley average. Stevenson Ranch consistently sits at the higher price band and the absorption was on point this week.
Agua Dulce closed one at $1,359,000.
Val Verde closed zero in the 7-day window. (One Castaic listing showed VVER as an area code, which can confuse the read; the actual Val Verde city tag had no closes.)
The Valencia Paradox — Two Markets in One City
If you treat Valencia as one market with one median, you will misprice. Period.
Valencia is running two parallel markets right now, and a seller pricing a Valencia home in May needs to know which one they are in before they pick a number.
Market A: New Construction (FivePoint / TSRO area)
The new-build band in Valencia — homes from 2025 and 2026 in the FivePoint and TSRO master-plan areas — closed in the $1,050,000 to $1,830,000 range last week. Days on market for these closes ran 170 to 246 days, which sounds catastrophic until you understand the convention. Builders release homes early, contracts are signed during construction, and the close hits MLS only after the certificate of occupancy. So these long DOM numbers are normal for new construction and do not reflect a slow market for that product.
If you are a Valencia seller of a new-construction home, your timeline is months, not weeks, and that is how it has always worked.
Market B: Resale Condos (Del Monte / Black Walnut bands)
The resale-condo band in Valencia tells a completely different story. These closed in the $450,000 to $690,000 range with DOM running 21 to 83 days. That is closer to 3 to 4 weeks of true selling time for the well-priced units, with the long-tail at 83 days marking the homes that pushed pricing too high at launch and had to recalibrate.
Same city. Same MLS. Two completely different buyer pools. Two completely different timelines. Two completely different pricing strategies.
This is exactly the kind of pattern aggregate medians hide and an undivided-focus listing agent has to surface for sellers before pricing day.
Price Action — What the 75 Changes Tell Us
The Price Change tab logged 75 entries in the last 7 days. The Matrix widget shows price increases and decreases as one combined count, so I cannot give you a clean decreases-only number for this episode without a deeper paginated pull. Future episodes will.
What I can tell you is this: 62% of last week's sales closed at or below their last list price. That is the strongest single data point on price expectation. Combined with a 28-listing failure pile, the message is clear. Sellers entering May at Q1 pricing assumptions are walking into the failure bucket.
Q&A — What Sellers Are Asking
FAQ — Search-Intent Questions
What is the SCV Market Watch Daily?
It is a 7-day-a-week market read from Sellers Only Agent™. I pull the multiple listing service every morning, compute aggregate metrics across all SCV cities, and publish a sub-3-minute video plus a long-form blog post. Aggregate only — no addresses, no private MLS data — every report is built from publicly observable fields and intended for seller education.
Where does this data come from?
California Regional MLS (CRMLS) Matrix system, Market Watch widget, configured for the Santa Clarita Valley city set. Pulled fresh each morning. Published with timestamp.
How often is this report updated?
Daily. Seven days a week. Each post is dated and references the prior week starting from that pull date.
Why aggregate only?
CRMLS rules govern redistribution of MLS data. Aggregate market statistics are appropriate for public publication. Address-level data, private remarks, and agent commentary are not. The Sellers Only Agent™ Market Watch operates strictly inside the aggregate boundary.
What cities are included?
Valencia, Saugus, Canyon Country, Newhall, Stevenson Ranch, Castaic, Acton, Agua Dulce, Val Verde, and general Santa Clarita unincorporated. Property type: residential single-family and condo/townhome.
How do I get a market read on my specific home?
Aggregate data tells you the macro story. Your specific home requires a comparable-sales analysis tied to your zip code, square footage, lot, condition, and view. Use the listing readiness score to start, then book a consultation through SellersOnlyAgent.com.
What does Sellers Only Agent™ charge?
$17,000 all-in fixed fee per listing. One agent. One job. One client. Yours. No buyer-side representation, no dual agency, no undivided focus going somewhere else.
What This Means If You Are Selling in May
Three things to take away from this week's data.
One. Realistic pricing wins. 62% of last week's sales closed at or below last list. The bidding-war assumption is dead and any pricing strategy that depends on multiple offers above asking is fighting last decade's market. Price for the comp set, not for the dream.
Two. Aspirational pricing fails. One in two SCV listings came off market without selling last week. The pattern in those failures is consistent — overprice at launch, run the clock, do reluctant cuts, expire. Do not start the listing in that pattern. The math will not save you.
Three. Representation matters. The agent on your sign decides whether you close in 14 days at $819K median or join the 28-listing failure pile. The difference is undivided focus on selling — not splitting attention with a buyer side, not running the same playbook every other agent runs, not betting on luck.
One agent. One job. One fee.
About Sellers Only Agent™
Sellers Only Agent™ is the listing-only practice of Connor MacIvor, real estate agent at SYNC Brokerage, California DRE License #01238257. Twenty seven years of Santa Clarita Valley listing experience. Trademark registered with the United States Patent and Trademark Office, application 99758462.
The model is simple. One agent. One job. One client. You. Seventeen thousand dollars all-in fixed fee per listing, no buyer-side representation, no dual agency, no divided attention. The undivided focus is the entire product.
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